[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W MOVING 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL BE HARDER TO DISTINGUISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
7W-12W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SW AFRICA E OF 7W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-53W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 24N87W 22N94W TO
THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE AND IS BEGINNING TO
STALL. SE OF THE FRONT ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 88W INCLUDING W CUBA...S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER NE MEXICO MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM 26N TO THE
FRONT W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER WITH WEAK/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS COVERING
THE N GULF IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE N GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER W
GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 20N
W OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS W CUBA
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE ITCZ
CROSSES PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
STRAYING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BASIN AND THE TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. THESE TRADE WINDS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR
FORT MYERS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N73W TO BEYOND 32N68W. A BROAD
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N57W TO 22N58W BUT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND ONLY PRODUCING POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E
ATLC...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N26W ALONG 27N31W TO 25N40W. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY
A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N47W AND IS BRIDGING ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE







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