[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.9N 66.3W AT 29/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 420 MILES...670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING ENE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
38N-40N BETWEEN 64W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W EXTENDING INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 12W-19W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-30W...
AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 26N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN
83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 95W-99W. NW 10-15 KT WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SE
GULF S OF THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...
THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 72W-80W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 87W-91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 77W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 67W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 27N54W 21N56W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N30W 27N40W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE  CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N17W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W.
EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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