[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.1N 67.8W AT 29/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
AND ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MOVING ENE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 66W-67W.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER WATERS THIS EVENING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 1N30W 2N40W EXTENDING INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 22W-24W...
AND FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 31N87W 27N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-85W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 93W-98W. NW 10 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE
GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... THE
COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 71W-80W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HISPANIOLA...
AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...STRONGEST CONVECTION TO
BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
68W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
27N51W 21N54W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N33W 29N40W 28N45W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
25N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N17W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W.
EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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