[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 282031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
30 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
DURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  AFTER THAT...COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR.  IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH
OF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN
CANADA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 37.7N  69.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 38.7N  67.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 40.4N  62.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 42.2N  57.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 43.9N  52.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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