[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE MOVING
WESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 6W-30W...FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 4N-7S
BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING S. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER INLAND
N FLORIDA. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY
10-15 KT SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE S OF 25N W
OF 86W DUE TO  WILDFIRES ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIVING THE SE GULF
SHOWERS SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N BAHAMAS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 35N44W 24N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 32N28W TO 24N40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. IN
THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N28W. ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AREA. EXPECT...THE
SHOWERS OVER THE S BAHAMAS TO DRIFT E AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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