[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...
CIMSS WAVETRACK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE E ATLC IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE. ALSO DRY AIR AND DUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS
ALSO SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 31W-35W MOSTLY DUE TO THE WAVE'S PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS AROUND THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 64W-66W. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-10S BETWEEN
28W-37W...AND FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 98W-103W MOVING E. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WIND SPEEDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT WITH 15 KT WINDS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N E OF 90W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER FLORIDA AND
THE E GULF E OF 90W HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE
TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N77W 22N71W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-30N
BETWEEN 71W-75W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N58W. A
WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 29N46W 22N50W 19N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-23N
BETWEEN 47W-60W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
AZORES AT 37N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-65W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 2N22W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC AREA. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS E OF THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT E
AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net