[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
PROBABLY ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS IN COLOMBIA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. NOT A LOT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE
HISTORY OF THIS WAVE. CLOUD MASSES AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N11W IN NORTHERN LIBERIA...TO 1N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W...GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INTENSIFYING
ON TOP OF FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO HAS EXTENDED ITS COVERAGE
SOUTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ORDER
TO COVER ALL OF FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CREATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...
WHICH JUST MEANS A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF THE DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW...WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA WITH AT LEAST FOUR DEATHS REPORTED IN HAITI DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT MOVED JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AT
LEAST 24 HOURS AGO EVENTUALLY HAS MADE ITS WAY TO 28N57W. THIS
CENTER IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
AT THIS MOMENT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK OR MORE
REMAINS NEAR 33N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
30N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 18N
TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
34N14W TO 24N20W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 23N22W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT.

$$
MT





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