[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST
ABOUT 10 KT. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AT 19/0600 UTC HAS BEEN
PUSHED TO THE EASTWARD IN ORDER TO APPEAR TO AGREE MORE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE WAVE'S
REPRESENTATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF YESTERDAY SHOWS THAT IT WAS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND NOT
EASY TO DISCERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 26W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SOUTH FLORIDA-
TO-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO APALACHEE BAY
OF FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN
GULF WATERS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUBA/BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT SPENT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN
NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION FINALLY HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH
NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT NOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS OF THE ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE SCENARIO OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS DEVELOPING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS CURRENTLY IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RAGGED ISLAND
RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...
AND FROM THE TURKS ISLANDS TO LONG ISLAND/RUM CAY/CROOKED ISLAND.
THE SAME DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 31N52W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N54W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 34N49W
AND 31N46W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG 31N46W 22N50W 18N60W
18N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N65W...TO NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE RAGGED
ISLAND RANGE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CUTS ACROSS
THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE FRONT.

$$
MT






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