[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N14W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
23W...TO 3S36W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 7S41W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST
OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH OF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE REACHES 85W...AND INSTEAD OF PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...THAT FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOSTLY IN TEXAS BUT THAT ENTERS FAR
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 83W/84W TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO RUN THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO IN THE SAME AREA AS THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA TO 150 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED
IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR
SO. MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA ROUGHLY FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 16N82W TO SOUTHERN
HAITI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N54W TO 22N62W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 35N53W TO
30N50W 26N56W 24N62W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO
25N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT FROM 23N TO 33N. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 27N65W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N65W TO 30N70W AND 33N75W.
PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N54W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STILL ARE FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 50W AND 51W. THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG THE LINE FROM 33N24W TO 22N32W.

$$
MT


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