[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE WRN GULF. AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE
NE GULF COAST E OF 91W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDS EWD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE...FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF AND LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED ALONG THE NRN GULF. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-80W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS ALSO
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN
60W-71W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED N OF BRAZIL OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 4N44W AND EXTENDS A UPPER RIDGE NW ACROSS NRN
SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND PRODUCING A BAND
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO OVER PUERTO RICO.
FOR NOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POCKETS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUE ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN
AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 72W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE SE CONUS COASTLINE. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS LOCATED OFFSHORE N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
36N56W THROUGH 32N58W SW TO 25N64W THEN TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW TO
28N63W WHERE IT CONTINUES STATIONARY ALONG 30N69W TO BEYOND
32N73W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AND
STABLE AIR AND THUS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N73W ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 70W-78W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W
OF 60W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED S OF THE AZORES
NEAR 35N29W.

$$
HUFFMAN


WWWW
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