[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 27W AND CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-34W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 31N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND IN
THE VICINITY OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 86W-87W.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO HAVE 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW.
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE SURROUNDING LAND MASSES FROM MEXICO TO LOUISIANA TO
FLORIDA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N
AND E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO
TRAVERSE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 80W-81W...AND
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 15N-20N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 4N35W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 4N55W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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