[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 4W-2E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W...AND FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N85W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO
HAVE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA N OF 17N AND E OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
57W-70W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 34N20W 32N25W
31N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD FROM EQ-20N
E OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E
BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 6N42W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 8N60W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO BE JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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