[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
10W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 18W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1005 MB LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER NE TEXAS NEAR 33N98W MOVING E.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 100W-103W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WINDS ARE 5-10 KT OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W. WINDS ARE 15-20 KT OVER THE W GULF. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
80W-84W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
17N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N41W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO
10N60W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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