[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N FROM 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...S TO SE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
SLIDES SWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE NRN
GULF COAST BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W-75W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. STRONG
ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN
THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OVER HISPANIOLA AS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
TRANQUIL THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SHALLOW
MOISTURE FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA. ONE OF THESE IS OVER AND TO THE N OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 75W
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W
ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS S OF 22N BETWEEN
60W-75W...NEAR THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND
DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...
AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED
DEEP CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT.
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 20W AND OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
16N6W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO ABOUT
50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT.

$$
HUFFMAN


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