[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N5W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W
AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S CENTRAL
GEORGIA...S ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 34N83W
32N85W 31N88W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 99W-101W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST WINDS ARE
10 KT EXCEPT OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA N OF 27N AND E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...ON THE SURFACE...
CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
71W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N55W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH
IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N73W 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWER
ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 26N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 30W-34W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N72W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 50W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N33W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 25W. IN THE TROPICS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N17W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO 10N50W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE
BAHAMAS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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