[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W AND
CONTINUING TO 2S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 8W-3E. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S GEORGIA...S ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 80W-90W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 99W-103W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE 10 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND THE OTHER N GULF STATES WHILE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...ON THE
SURFACE...CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF 70W.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N72W 28N74W 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWER ARE E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ANOTHER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N36W TO 26N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 32W-41W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUYANA NEAR 6N59W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 12N14W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W TO 7N45W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE
BAHAMAS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA







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