[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 6N11W TO 4N20W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 28W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM
2N-2S BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-1S BETWEEN 34W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF BERMUDA HAS
BEEN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY AND IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 25N ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 17N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 92W-97W. EXPECT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E AND THUS PRODUCE MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
87W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT...SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 41N63W PRODUCING
STRONG SE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER FLORIDA. THIS SAME HIGH IS
PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 28N59W 20N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 55W-58W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. A THIRD SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N58W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN
50W-58W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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