[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 1N10W...DIPPING S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 12W...AND CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
ACROSS W AFRICA OVER PORTIONS OF THE IVORY COAST AND LIBERIA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N BETWEEN
15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN
FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W THEN CONTINUES ALONG
23N85W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA
PENINSULA EXTENDING SW WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TO
NEAR 23N86W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NE U.S. AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY
LATE MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE WRN GULF W OF 87W IS UNDER A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WHILE 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE FAR NW
GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF
LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
EXTENDS S ALONG 22N86W TO 19N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO
THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N79W AND EXTENDS
INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1022 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N33W 23N50W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AS NLY WINDS ADVECT BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N12W IS PROVIDING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net