[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W DIPPING TO S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 20W...AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
9W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S
BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-2S BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND FROM 3S-6S BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N83W 26N85W 17N89W MOVING SE. A
SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT FROM N FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG 28N83W 34N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG 21N99W 16N96W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS. THE SE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
20-25 KT S WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 85W. A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF
AND N FLORIDA E OF 87W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 70W-75W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTRAINING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ENTRAINING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...N
VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA E OF 77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG
75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
EXCEPT OVER PANAMA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA N
OF 29N BETWEEN 77W-81W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N61W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N34W TO 24N40W 18N50W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
S TO 15N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS SAL ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC S
OF 17N AND E OF 37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 7N20W. EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 32N29W 21N40W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO ALSO MOVE E AND BE ALONG
32N69W 24N80W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA









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