[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
23W THEN ALONG 1S30W 1S40W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
4W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN
25W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN
35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS OVER S LOUISIANA AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 32N90W 28N94W MOVING NE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 87W-93W. A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W IS PRODUCING 20-30
KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS N OF 20N. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 64W...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. WINDS ARE STRONGER HOWEVER
NEAR BARBADOS WITH 30 KT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 25N50W
22N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE TROUGH TO 72W...N OF 22N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER E FROM 32N44W TO E OF BARBADOS ALONG 20N50W 11N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROUGH. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-45W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N20W. EXPECT...THE
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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