[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST IS PROVIDING BRISK E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W...WITH DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE
GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA TO NRN
NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN A DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE NW OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS OF 70-90 KT...ARE
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE NE U.S. COAST TO 32N65W
TO ERN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE
FIRST ONE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N48W ALONG 26N51W 22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N55W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N60W 26N70W
28N75W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR SAVANNAH. STRONG NLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 110-130 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W AND
EWD TO 26N45W WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AZORES TO
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
UNDER MAINLY 15-20 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN


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