[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W
CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 36W-39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 1S-6S
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE-E FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH 25-30 KT. THE E GULF
E OF 88W...AND N FLORIDA...HAS PATCHES OF BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIS ARE
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N AND W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE  E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE N GULF N OF 25N...AND S TEXAS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO MOVE E IN 24 HOURS WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
20N62W 18N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING E. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 69W-77W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...N VENEZUELA...PANAMA
...AND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
A LINE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM PANAMA TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA.
EXPECT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND
N COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NE SURFACE FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF DAYTONA. SIMILAR CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 40N30W 32N34W 20N40W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A SURFACE PLUME OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 30W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
40W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N48W IN 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA



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