[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 5N10W TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 6N AT THE LIBERIA
COAST...TO 3N30W 3N45W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES CUBA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN ON THE MAPS FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO IS ALONG 22N89W
FROM THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 24N86W TO 25N87W...FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN
7W AND 88W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF LA SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN
99W AND 102W ARE BEING BLOWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BIT OF DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TROUGH REACH CUBA AND A SMALL PART OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 20N. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE PART TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM DOMINICA
TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N45W TO 29N49W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N74W TO THE CUBA COAST
ALONG 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 997 MB STORM CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N44W. A COLD FRONT CONNECTED TO THIS STORM CENTER
PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 25N50W TO 23N58W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 23N58W TO 24N65W...AND WARM FROM 24N65W
TO 26N69W AND TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N73W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N72W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER
TO 21N75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N18W TO 12N20W SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO 8N22W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W TO 22N30W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF 32N13W 22N20W 21N30W 25N40W BEYOND 30N40W.

$$
MT



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