[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 9W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N97W 19N96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 89W-95W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 50'S N OF THE FRONT AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
80W...THUS SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER N FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY N OF 16N TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W 29N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W MOVING E. A 1006 MB LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE
FROM THE LOW TO 28N22W 24N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER
E NEAR 34N23W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 5N28W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE
HIGH CENTER TO TRINIDAD. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE N OF
THE AREA AND DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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