[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
26W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 17W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF VERACRUZ ALONG 30N87W 28N95W
20N97W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
N OF THE FRONT. 15 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT
SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS COAST
ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S. TEMPERATURES S OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN
THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW DOMINATES THE W GULF W
OF 90W DUE TO A RIDGE MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E GULF E OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY N OF
16N...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. A 1002 MB
GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N35W 25N33W 20N35W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 30W-34W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW CENTER IS
PRODUCING 30-35 KT GALE WINDS AND SEAS 13-20 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN
45W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
FURTHER E NEAR 29N37W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
30W TO W AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 10N24W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE
HIGH CENTER TO TRINIDAD ALONG 10N. EXPECT...THE GALE LOW TO MOVE
TO 30N34W AND FILL TO 1007 MB IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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