[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
22W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 6S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 15W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO ALONG 30N88W 28N95W 22N98W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 N OF THE FRONT.
15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE S
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE TEXAS COAST ARE IN THE 40'S
AND 50'S. TEMPERATURES S OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE 70'S. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE
TO THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 25-30 KT
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG E-NE FLOW. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS N OF 16N...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N...JAMAICA...
...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR A
PATCH OF MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N70W. A 1000 MB
GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N44W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N39W 25N40W 20N44W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 27N44W. A BROAD RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W TO W AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 10N30W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO VENEZUELA ALONG 10N.
EXPECT...THE GALE LOW TO MOVE TO 28N39W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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