[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
20W CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-2S
BETWEEN 9W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N
BETWEEN 16W-19W...AND FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 27W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL
FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA
AND SE TEXAS ALONG 31N90W 30N95W 27N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND N OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60'S TO THE UPPER
70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF W OF 96W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO N
OF TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 30 KT WINDS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG E-NE FLOW. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE THE
WINDWARD ISLAND...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W
WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL IN 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N69W. A 995 MB
GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N45W 29N44W 24N50W 21N60W 22N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 41W-45W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 26N32W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 30N49W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF
20 FROM 35W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 8N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO VENEZUELA ALONG 8N. EXPECT...THE GALE LOW TO
MOVE TO 30N45W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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