[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AT 24W TO 1S40W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 2W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN
17W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-7S
BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS ARE LOCATED OVER S ALABAMA AND NRN
BAHAMAS. THEY ARE PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60'S TO THE UPPER 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HRS WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 30 KT WINDS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG E-NE FLOW. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MOISTURE N OF VENEZUELA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS W ALONG
29N60W 29N70W 32N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
50W-56W. A 1001 MB LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLC AT 31N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 27N36W 22N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
33W-35W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC FROM
27N30W 10N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 6O NM OF THE AXIS. A
1026 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 43N13W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 14N30W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NORTH EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
FURTHER E NEAR 34N55W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20 FROM 45W TO THE W
COAST OF AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 8N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO
VENEZUELA ALONG 10N. EXPECT...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HRS NEAR 29N58W. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE
WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW NEAR 30N48W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA/WALTON







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