[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N14W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
22W...TO 2S30W 2N38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENDS IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 17N65W.
A BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 46W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND BEYOND HISPANIOLA.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
RUNS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF 70W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
UNDER THE HIGHER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
25N60W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N65W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 6O NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N60W TO 26N54W...AND WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N54W BEYOND 32N51W. A BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 30N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS AROUND A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N72W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A 1036 MB AZORES HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 38N28W...FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD...BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE STATIONARY FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N21W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N32W TO
10N33W.

$$
MT





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