[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 27W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 36N74W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N96W.
15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 88W.
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF HAVE FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N63W TO 14N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...PANAMA...HONDURAS...AND S GUATEMALA
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 38N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO 5N25W. EXPECT... A 1014 MB LOW TO FORM ON THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 24N57W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THIS LOW TO DEEPEN TO 1010 MB AND MOVE TO 28N52W IN
36 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN BE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

$$
FORMOSA





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