[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 24W EXTENDING TO 2S35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS IN PLACE.
THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE CONUS. AS A
RESULT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTS OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HIGHER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF
REGION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE N GULF...WHERE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM E COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W TO 16N79W AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 16N79W TO SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONTS. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF
THE FRONTS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION...WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS. THE FRONTS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
THESE SHOWERS IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 27N67W TO 32N65W TO N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
PRESENT...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N46W WITH A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N48W TO 30N42W...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 24N43W TO 22N50W...AND A SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 26N37W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTS IS SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 44W-49W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
04/1200 UTC. ACROSS THE E ATLC...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 56W.

$$
COHEN


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