[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 2S30W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N
EAST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST
OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N68W TO 24N70W
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
16N80W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
NORTHERN HAITI TO 23N69W 27N67W BEYOND BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EASTERN JAMAICA TO 16N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
16N80W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS INTO
A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW IS MOVING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO SOUTHERN COASTAL HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
EAST OF 70W. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IN PARTS OF COLOMBIA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND TWO CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A 1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N43W...CONNECTED TO A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N41W
BY AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N41W TO
26N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 29N41W LOW CENTER TO 26N42W
AND 23N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW RUNS FROM MOROCCO
TO THE WESTERN SAHARA AND STOPS NEAR 21N27W WAS CONNECTED TO THE
WARM FRONT SOME 6 HOURS TO 12 HOURS AGO.

$$
MT


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