[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO
3S34W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S41W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA...
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS EVERYWHERE. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY IS MOVING ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS GUATEMALA...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT IS BROKEN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND
GALE-FORCE ARE BLOWING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM THE
ISTHMUS NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N108W. SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND
77W...AND IN THE WATERS FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THIS FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF
BOGOTA COLOMBIA...COMPARATIVELY IN BETWEEN TWO MOUNTAIN RANGES
IN POSSIBLY BROAD WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER FROM THE LATITUDE OF
THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MARACAIBO TOWARD THE COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOME DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA/GEORGIA/FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
HAS SPILLED INTO THE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND
77W...AND IN THE WATERS FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
30N21W SUPPORTS IN SOME WAY THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRADDLES
30N BETWEEN 15W AND THE 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N44W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N46W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST ALONG 28N51W TO
23N55W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 25N40W. A SECOND DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ALSO IS SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH FEATURE...THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N48W TO 22N63W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
26N63W TO 24N71W TO 23N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N31W 18N35W 7N37W.

$$
MT





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