[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011026 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2009

...CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 16W EXTENDING TO 1S31W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 7W-13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 15W-24W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GULF REGION. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W
TO 25N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N87W TO 27N89W TO 26N92W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SW...MIDDLE...AND E GULF. ALSO...RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE E OF THE GULF REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N
TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION BEGINNING AT 01/1200 UTC AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION BEGINNING AT 02/0000 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY...WITH
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS...AND IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC SUNDAY
MORNING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N62W TO 24N61W TO
27N58W...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 30N44W TO 31N32W...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W
TO 32N25W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE SW QUADRANT OF A 90-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS AREA OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE SURFACE FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE
NEXT DAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
31N44W AT 02/0000 UTC. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE
TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N35W. THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED NEAR 29N35W AS A 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH AT 02/0000 UTC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 13N E OF 58W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR
2N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN




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