[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301657
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MAINLY N OF 10N AND
MAY BE MOVING CLOSER TO 20-25 KT. ANY CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
LAGS THE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TPW PRODUCT
AND IS LOSING ITS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS
AND 59W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION IN THE ATLC BASIN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N23W 5N40W 6N51W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N28W 4N40W TO 6N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
W ATLC JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ACROSS PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA...THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA THEN NW OVER E
TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE FRONT E OF 87W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
87W-91W...AND WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 91W-95W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF UPPER LEVELS ANCHORED ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AND THE AXIS EXTENDING NE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND TAMPA
PROVIDING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD
UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 17N75W WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-83W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SMALL
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT JUST N
OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
THAT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM
NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND BERMUDA PROVING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE
ALONG 31N76W TO 33N72W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
25N W OF 73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SAME UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES E
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-70W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE
FROM A 1022 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS
THROUGH A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W AND A WEAKNESS ALONG
48W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N-28W BUT IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N TO THE ITCZ E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net