[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE CONFIRMING ITS
POSITION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO LACKS ANY DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
47W-52W AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINED ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 8N21W 5N33W 6N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND HAS
EMERGED OFF THE COAST FROM 5N-11N E OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF EXTENDS FROM 27N84W TO 22N89W
AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 15N91W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N98W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N E OF
89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF 23N E OF 84W.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING FROM UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W IN THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN...SEE
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CUBA N OF 21N. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W. ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS E OF 70W RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. EXPECT THE TRADES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...DIFFLUENCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 74W-81W INCLUDING
THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NASSAU HAS REPORTED .45
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. A DYING COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30 N BETWEEN
53W-63W. FARTHER TO THE E...A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS DOMINATE
BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. A
1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N44W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS
OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 50W. TO THE E AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N50W TO 32N30W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS S OF 20N. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...MOIST E-NE FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT.

$$
WALTON





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