[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290018 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...
THE ITCZ SECTION...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 40W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 9N44W 2N46W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 79W AND 80W FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME
INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN ORDER TO CAUSE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 4N27W 7N43W...INTO SURINAME AND GUYANA
NEAR 6N56W AND 5N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 33W AND
50W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
REYNOSA MEXICO/MCALLEN TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 26N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N90W TO
20N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN
83W AND 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM GEORGIA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 65W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA REACHES 28N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...SOUTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA...AND FROM COSTA RICA INTO PANAMA IN THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
COMPARATIVELY MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THOSE COUNTRIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND FROM PANAMA TO 12N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IN
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHERNMOST
EXTENT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N51W REACHES 15N65W IN THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N51W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N52W TO 17N58W...INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 30N18W. A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 30N18W TO 26N25W TO 24N35W.

$$
MT







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