[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31N/34W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. 18N56W
10N57W TO 2N58W MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS ARE FROM 10 TO 11N
BETWEEN 54W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO
PANAMA ALONG 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF CUBA...TO 18N81W AND 12N81W...FROM 12N TO 20N. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
IN A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N23W 8N32W 7N47W TO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INTERIOR MEXICO TROUGH REACHES
26N104W 23N98W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
MEXICO...FROM 24N TO 29N...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A FEW RAIN CELLS ARE DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS...FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...TO
18N81W AND 12N81W...FROM 12N TO 20N. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT HAS SUPPORTED
THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED
COMPARATIVELY AND IT IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN OVERRUN WITH A RIDGE FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IS
CAUGHT UP IN THE RIDGE FROM 26N78W IN THE BAHAMAS TO 28N73W.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SHOWERS ARE IN ONE CELL FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W.
A CUT-OFF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N52W. THIS FEATURE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SAME
AREA DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS OR SO. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.
A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 36N30W TO
31N34W TO 30N36W. A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 34N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N21W.

$$
MT





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