[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS ALONG 14N26W
10N29W 5N30W...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...QUIKSCAT DATA...
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N53W 8N55W TO 2N56W MOVING WEST
15 KT. NO DEFINITE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 20N70W TO 15N72W TO 9N73W...MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG
SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...IN COLOMIBA JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N20N TO 9N28W 5N43W 7N52W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 12W...
AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE EAST OF 103W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N.
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 26N79W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING WITH TIME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 25N82W NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO 26N88W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W.
THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 33N74W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 20N70W TO 9N73W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN HAITI NEAR 17.5N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 26N79W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO
26N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
25N82W NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 26N88W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 29N91W. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH
33N74W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH A 30N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SMALLER
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N31W TO A COMPARATIVELY MUCH BIGGER
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N50W TO 13N56W. THE 21N50W CYCLONIC CENTER
HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST THREE DAYS
OR SO.

$$
MT


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