[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 232345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N62W NEAR GUADELOUPE TO 7N63W
OVER ERN VENEZUELA MOVING W AROUND AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N33W 5N44W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER AND ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N102W AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER SWRN LOUISIANA IS
SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N96W. A 1630 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS SLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND
THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WATERS NE OF A
LINE FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO MOBILE BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SWD OVER THE FAR E GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES IMPACTING THE
GULF...A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N93W AND NARROW RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS BRINING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL N-NE FLOW IS DRAWING MODERATELY DRY AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 83W
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS N
OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SRN CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING AN DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W
OF 77W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8-9N IS ALSO A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO OF NOTE IS
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WWD. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N71W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N67W 27N70W 25N76W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 60W-68W
ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 61W-67W AND WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH BETWEEN 67W-81W. THIS INCLUDES THE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 62W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N43W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...GENERALLY
WLY FLOW DOMINATES S OF 22N WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS...DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
ERN CARIBBEAN...STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 45W-62W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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