[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N60W TO 4N62W MOVING W AROUND 15
KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WELL WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N25W 6N35W 5N44W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
MEXICO NEAR 25N102W AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LOUISIANA IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
FROM 20N96W TO 23N96W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 94W-97W. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER S FLORIDA AND IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL GULF...A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N93W DOMINATES
BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
THE SURFACE HIGH HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N92W WHICH IS PROVIDING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT W OF 94W.
EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL N-NE FLOW IS DRAWING MODERATELY DRY AIR TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 17W RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY W UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE COAST RICA/ NICARAGUA BORDER AND THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE COSTA
RICA/ PANAMA BORDER AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE ITCZ WHICH HAS
PULLED N OF PANAMA AND EXTENDS FROM 9N76W TO 9N81W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR BOTH OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 77W. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 70W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING W ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 32N72W TO 22N73W IS SUPPORTING...A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING TO 28N65W...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N66W 24N72W 28N79W...AND A
SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N79W TO 32N83W TO N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS E OF 70W...WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 70W-77W...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH W OF
77W...INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH AT THE EDGE OF THE THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N64W TO 32N56W TO N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 24N48W WHICH IS
ABSORBED INTO A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC
EXTEND FROM 22N29W TO 32N25W TO N OF THE AREA.

$$
WALTON



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net