[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N59W TO BARBADOS INTO
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND FINALLY BRAZIL NEAR 3N62W...MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES ON TOP
OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W 6N30W TO 6N40W...INTO NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 27N103W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N97W INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N96W. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
90W AND THE MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT REACHES THE BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N82W.
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED INTO NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N67W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO 15N72W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE 13N82W CENTER WAS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT
COVERED THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS LATE AS 22/1000 UTC. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE CURRENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT APPEARS THAT A DEFORMATION AXIS IS ALONG
THE LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W TO GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH
AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 28N76W BEYOND THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N66W 27N74W TO
THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N65W 26N66W 23N73W
27N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS COVERS PRECIPITATION
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO A 29N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N30W TO 20N34W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net