[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 10N60W TO THE
GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER AT THE COAST...TO 3N61W IN BRAZIL...
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 17N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL AND SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 17W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N102W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N97W INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N95W. SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FROM 19N TO
21N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT REACHES THE BAHAMAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALSO FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA
TO MEXICO FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N81W
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
22N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N72W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 13N81W CENTER WAS PART OF THE TROUGH
THAT COVERED THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS LATE AS 22/1000 UTC.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE CURRENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IT APPEARS THAT A DEFORMATION AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW PASSES THROUGH A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N69W TO 28N77W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 27N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
IN THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN
63W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N49W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N30W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 25N33W TO 18N35W.

$$
MT



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