[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N51W 8N54W INTO
SOUTHERN SURINAME/BRAZIL NEAR 2N55W...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N53W 8N55W 7N59W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N25W TO 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. SHOWERS
THAT MOST PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE ITCZ ARE FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N102W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N98W TO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N97W.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AREAS OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N94W
AND 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 20.5N
BETWEEN 93W AND 94W. A COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N92W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM AREAS TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N53W...ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS...ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GUADELOUPE
PASSAGE TO POSSIBLY THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N71W. SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CUBA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS
IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A WEAK AND
FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...REACHING AS FAR AS COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT STILL IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N74W TO 28N78W TO 25N80W IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE
CELL THAT IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N79.5W...AND FROM
30N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE BEING
PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COVER THE
AREA FROM 21N IN THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 63W AND 80W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N32W TO 27N35W TO 24N35W TO 18N35W.
HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N
TO 32N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W.

$$
MT





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