[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N24W 5N34W 2N43W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W TO
29N82W N TO A SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER GEORGIA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FLORIDA N OF 30N E OF 82W AS WELL AS THE
MAJORITY OF S/CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N E OF 82W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE S GULF. THIS SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N89W TO S GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. THE SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...A STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEAR 28N88W
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
GULF...WITH SE TO S WINDS OF 15-20 KT OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF W OF
95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W N OF 17N. THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 15N73W IS LIMITING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 25N81W TO
29N82W N TO A SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL/S FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 30N W OF 80W AND FROM 26N-29N W OF 79W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 19N. A 1014
MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ATLC NEAR 31N17W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 16W-18W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N35W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 12N40W TO 28N33W. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE STALL OVER THE NW WATERS LATER TODAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU.

$$
WALTON



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