[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
OVER WATER FROM 14N IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W...FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 51W
AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
19N100W IN BETWEEN QUERETARO AND THE MEXICO CITY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE
NORTH OF 23N IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W IN AN AREA OF A WEAK AND FLAT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...OVER WATER FROM 14N
IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W AND
88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N50W INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W...ENCOMPASSING THE ISLANDS
FROM BARBADOS AND SAINT VINCENT TO PUERTO RICO. GUADELOUPE REPORTED
A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 3.10 INCHES ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC. ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OF
THAT 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME MEASURE
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-VENEZUELA TROUGH. THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA THAT IS CURRENT AS OF 16/1500 UTC REALLY DOES NOT
SHOW THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. I JUST AM TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF TWO
TROUGHS EXIST OR IF JUST ONE BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS THAT APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING WITH TIME ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. A CELL OF PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
70W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N FROM 70W TO GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N50W...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THIS TROUGH. A 1014 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W...ABOUT 120 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE
IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH RESPECT TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 33N16W.
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 25N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

$$
MT





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