[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS WEAKENED AS IT NO LONGER COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SUBSIDENCE
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N21W 6N30W 3N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-52W AND INLAND OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM NEAR
28N82W TO BEYOND 32N82W CONTINUING N TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 95W.
ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS AS A STATIONARY 1016 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N87W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH PROVIDING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO
16N87W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NW ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
60W-77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND PALM BEACH...REMNANTS OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ORIGINALLY NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 28N50W SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N51W TO 31N49W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W-68W. AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-18N W OF 56W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N32W DOMINATES BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALTON/WALLACE





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