[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N13W TO 8N20W TO 6N30W TO 3N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND
19W...FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 30W AND 52W IN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
A SPOT ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N97W...
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 14N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N78W TO JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...OVER SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 28N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM A RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 90W.
ONE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 84W IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W/86W
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO HONDURAS AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR
12N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 18.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W
INCLUDING PASSING ON TOP OF AND/OR NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COASTS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A TROUGH
THAT PASSES BEYOND 31N77W TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO 29N72W
BEYOND 31N68W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 29N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N51W TO 13N57W TO GUYANA
NEAR 5N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
57W AND 63W. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS MOSTLY THE AREAS AROUND AND/OR
ON TOP OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO GUADELOUPE.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON
TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 33N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS
AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 25N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

$$
MT





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