[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WEST ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N8W 9N11W 6N30W 3N40W TO THE NE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH REMAINING IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N87W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS SW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EXTENDING FROM 21N91W S AND INLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N
FROM 91W-97W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NE
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING AN AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE SE GULF. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST OFF THE W COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF
THROUGH MOST OF WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CENTERED INT HE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN ALONG 20N86W THROUGH HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF
84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N80W DRAWING
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
19N81W TO 12N82W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N75W OVER COLOMBIA JUST N OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 70W IS UNDER MODERATE/DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND
NARROWING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N56W. THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 64W-69W AND
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-78W. THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR THE AZORES. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N49W TO 32N47W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE






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