[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
VIEWED ON SSMI/AMSRE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 3N30W 2N40W TO THE COAST OF
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N100W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS  AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...A SURFACE
TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SIMILAR SHOWERS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N76W 11N80W MOVING W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF E CUBA FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 21N85W 12N89W
DRIFTING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WIND DIRECTION BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGHS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA
NEAR 16N91W. FURTHER E... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 82W WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE SURFACE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE W AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION PREDOMINATELY
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 73W-76W. A 1024
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A DISSIPATING
1020 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 31N46W. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL LOWS
ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 31N66W...20N54W...28N45W...AND 35N22W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE UPPER LOW AT 31N66W IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 63W-65W. IN THE
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 14N12W
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 10N40W. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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